Ecuador's President Rafael Correa has been celebrating an apparent landslide victory in a referendum on overhauling the political system. An exit poll showed 78% of voters backed his call for a people's assembly that would by-pass Congress and rewrite the constitution.
Mr Correa said the country had "said yes to the future". He also threatened to kick out the World Bank's representative and said he would no longer deal with the IMF.
Mr Correa has said reform of the country's political system is essential. But his critics accuse him of being authoritarian and following in the footsteps of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
Mr Chavez was quick to congratulate Mr Correa after the referendum, saying: "That is how Latin America is moving forward, from victory to victory, from triumph to triumph."
Counting for the referendum is expected to be a long process and official results will not be available for a number of days. However, the BBC's Daniel Schweimler in Quito says supporters of President Correa were out on the streets just minutes after polling stations closed at 2200 GMT.
The president was shown on national television celebrating at a hotel in the country's largest city, Guayaquil. A Cedatos-Gallup exit poll of 40,000 voters nationwide showed 78% in favour and 11.5% opposed.
Mr Correa said "fear had been left behind". "The future was at stake, the country was at stake and Ecuadoreans have said yes to that future."
Mr Correa responded to the referendum with an announcement that Ecuador had repaid its final debt to the International Monetary Fund. He added: "We don't want to hear anything more from that international bureaucracy." The president also warned he would kick out the representative of the World Bank in Ecuador if the government received, as he put it, pressure from the organisation.
Mr Correa has railed against corruption in the country's political system, labelling Congress "a sewer".
But many of his critics have accused him of trying to increase his power and follow President Chavez, who has brought in controversial reforms in Venezuela.
Former Ecuador president Oswaldo Hurtado said of the referendum: "It's not a project for a better democracy. It's a project to accumulate power. All dictators always have had constitutions made to fit them." The assembly at the centre of the vote would be elected within three months and have six months to draft the constitution. The document would then be put to a second referendum.
Mr Correa has said he wants to depoliticise the courts and decentralise the state. The referendum had sparked a political crisis in the country. An electoral court sacked 57 lawmakers in March for trying to block it. When the dismissals were ruled illegal, police prevented the legislators returning to their offices and the deputies were kicked and punched by Correa supporters.
Story from BBC NEWS:
Published: 2007/04/16 03:59:25 GMT
© BBC MMVII
Showing posts with label Ecuador. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ecuador. Show all posts
Monday, April 16, 2007
Venezuela and Its Neighbors Reject IMF Report
Venezuela and Its Neighbors Reject IMF Report
Saturday, Apr 14, 2007
By: Chris Carlson - Venezuelanalysis.com
Mérida, April 13, 2007 (venezuelanalysis.com)— Venezuela, along with other countries of the region, rejected the latest report by the International Monetary Fund on the economic growth of the region. The recent report released by the fund predicts that Latin America will not grow as much in 2007 as it did in 2006. Leaders of the region assured that the international organization keeps getting it wrong on Latin America.
"For three consecutive years now they've gotten it wrong with Venezuela," said Venezuela's Minister of Finance, Rodrigo Cabezas, yesterday, in response to the IMF report. "It seems like their prognoses have a kind of political commitment in order to discredit the success of the Venezuelan economy in the last few years," he said.
On Wednesday the international organization released their annual report entitled World Economic Outlook. The report forecast that the world economy will continue to grow, but that Latin America's growth will slow down.
The report projected that economic growth in the region will drop to 4.9 percent this year from 5.5 percent in 2006. Venezuela's growth, which was 10.3 percent last year, is projected to drop to 6.2 percent in 2007, and inflation was predicted to be 21.6 percent.
But Cabezas questioned the motives of the International Monetary Fund, saying that they continuously register low growth rates for Venezuela. In 2005, the IMF predicted a 1.1 percent growth rate for Venezuela, when the real actual growth rate ended at 10.3 percent. In 2006 the IMF said 3.8 percent, when Venezuela actually grew 10.2 percent.
"The IMF hasn't realized that we have 14 quarters, almost 4 years, of sustained growth," said Cabezas, "something that hasn't been achieved in Venezuela since 26 years ago." Cabezas assured that the growth rate for 2007 would be above 7 percent, and could pass 8 percent. The government's goal for inflation is 12 percent.
President of Argentina Nestor Kirchner also responded to the IMF report, rejecting their recommendations. Although the report indicated that Argentina would have the highest growth in the region, Kirchner rejected the suggestions given by IMF director Rodrigo Rato. "He can no longer tell us what we have to do," he said. "We already saw what happened to us when he told us what we had to do."
The President of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, also spoke out against the IMF this week. On Wednesday, he stated that the new Bank of the South, a regional fund being created with the joint efforts of Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, would end the region’s subjection to the control of the IMF and World Bank.
"They want to put us on our knees so that the IMF and the World Bank will give us funding," said Correa. "That is the new way of subduing countries. Now they don't need aircraft carriers or bombers, only dollars."
The IMF also recommended that Latin America further open their economies, and create a better environment for investment. According to IMF director Rodrigo Rato, Latin America's growth is behind that of other regions "because their markets are not open or competitive enough."
In what appears to be a veiled call for privatizations, the fund says that the nations of the region should also reduce the role of state-owned companies in the economy. This goes directly against the politics of the Chávez government, which has drastically increased state participation in the economy. Also, Venezuela should control their public spending which has grown "exceptionally fast," they said.
Venezuelan Finance Minister Cabezas responded by saying "the experience of the last three years should demonstrate to the IMF that the problem is not the amount of spending, but the quality of spending."
Cabezas also pointed out that the IMF "ignores" that the percent of homes in Venezuela in conditions of poverty has dropped from 25 percent in 2003 to 9.1 percent in 2006. They also "ignore" that the minimum wage in Venezuela is US$ 238 per month, the highest in Latin America after Chile, and even higher than Chile if food supplements are included, he said.
According to Cabezas, the IMF's calculations are "not technical, nor economic, but political, and they have the intention of discrediting our model."
See also: New Report Raises Doubts about IMF Growth Projections on Venezuela and Argentina
Saturday, Apr 14, 2007
By: Chris Carlson - Venezuelanalysis.com
Mérida, April 13, 2007 (venezuelanalysis.com)— Venezuela, along with other countries of the region, rejected the latest report by the International Monetary Fund on the economic growth of the region. The recent report released by the fund predicts that Latin America will not grow as much in 2007 as it did in 2006. Leaders of the region assured that the international organization keeps getting it wrong on Latin America.
"For three consecutive years now they've gotten it wrong with Venezuela," said Venezuela's Minister of Finance, Rodrigo Cabezas, yesterday, in response to the IMF report. "It seems like their prognoses have a kind of political commitment in order to discredit the success of the Venezuelan economy in the last few years," he said.
On Wednesday the international organization released their annual report entitled World Economic Outlook. The report forecast that the world economy will continue to grow, but that Latin America's growth will slow down.
The report projected that economic growth in the region will drop to 4.9 percent this year from 5.5 percent in 2006. Venezuela's growth, which was 10.3 percent last year, is projected to drop to 6.2 percent in 2007, and inflation was predicted to be 21.6 percent.
But Cabezas questioned the motives of the International Monetary Fund, saying that they continuously register low growth rates for Venezuela. In 2005, the IMF predicted a 1.1 percent growth rate for Venezuela, when the real actual growth rate ended at 10.3 percent. In 2006 the IMF said 3.8 percent, when Venezuela actually grew 10.2 percent.
"The IMF hasn't realized that we have 14 quarters, almost 4 years, of sustained growth," said Cabezas, "something that hasn't been achieved in Venezuela since 26 years ago." Cabezas assured that the growth rate for 2007 would be above 7 percent, and could pass 8 percent. The government's goal for inflation is 12 percent.
President of Argentina Nestor Kirchner also responded to the IMF report, rejecting their recommendations. Although the report indicated that Argentina would have the highest growth in the region, Kirchner rejected the suggestions given by IMF director Rodrigo Rato. "He can no longer tell us what we have to do," he said. "We already saw what happened to us when he told us what we had to do."
The President of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, also spoke out against the IMF this week. On Wednesday, he stated that the new Bank of the South, a regional fund being created with the joint efforts of Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, would end the region’s subjection to the control of the IMF and World Bank.
"They want to put us on our knees so that the IMF and the World Bank will give us funding," said Correa. "That is the new way of subduing countries. Now they don't need aircraft carriers or bombers, only dollars."
The IMF also recommended that Latin America further open their economies, and create a better environment for investment. According to IMF director Rodrigo Rato, Latin America's growth is behind that of other regions "because their markets are not open or competitive enough."
In what appears to be a veiled call for privatizations, the fund says that the nations of the region should also reduce the role of state-owned companies in the economy. This goes directly against the politics of the Chávez government, which has drastically increased state participation in the economy. Also, Venezuela should control their public spending which has grown "exceptionally fast," they said.
Venezuelan Finance Minister Cabezas responded by saying "the experience of the last three years should demonstrate to the IMF that the problem is not the amount of spending, but the quality of spending."
Cabezas also pointed out that the IMF "ignores" that the percent of homes in Venezuela in conditions of poverty has dropped from 25 percent in 2003 to 9.1 percent in 2006. They also "ignore" that the minimum wage in Venezuela is US$ 238 per month, the highest in Latin America after Chile, and even higher than Chile if food supplements are included, he said.
According to Cabezas, the IMF's calculations are "not technical, nor economic, but political, and they have the intention of discrediting our model."
See also: New Report Raises Doubts about IMF Growth Projections on Venezuela and Argentina
Doubts about IMF Growth Projections
New Report Raises Doubts about IMF Growth Projections on Venezuela and Argentina
Friday, Apr 06, 2007
By: Center for Economic and Policy Research
Washington, DC: On the eve of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research raises serious concerns about IMF projections for Argentina's GDP growth since 1999 and Venezuela's since 2003.
"It's hard to look at the pattern of these large, repeated errors — especially for Argentina — and not wonder what went wrong," said economist Mark Weisbrot, CEPR co-director and co-author of the paper with David Rosnick.
Weisbrot recommended that the IMF address this problem at their Spring Meetings this month. "It raises questions regarding the reliability and objectivity of the IMF's growth projections," he said.
The report, Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections For Argentina and Venezuela, shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002. This was during the country's 1998-2002 depression, when the IMF was lending billions of dollars to support policies that ultimately ended in an economic collapse.
These overestimates then changed to large underestimates for the four years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. During this time, the IMF had an increasingly antagonistic relationship with the Argentine government and opposed a number of its economic policies. In April 2003, the IMF's Director of Research called Argentina's growth "a hiatus at the moment from its long economic fall."
Argentina has now completed a five-year economic expansion with the fastest growth in the Western Hemisphere, with real GDP growth of 47 percent.
The paper looks at the record of IMF public documents and finds evidence that faulty economic analysis and political considerations may have contributed to these errors. Similarly, the authors suggest that the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004 may be related to its apparent dislike for that government.
According to the report, with regard to Venezuela, "IMF projections for the years 2004, 2005, and 2006 underestimated GDP growth by 10.6, 6.8, and 5.8 percentage points respectively."
Friday, Apr 06, 2007
By: Center for Economic and Policy Research
Washington, DC: On the eve of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research raises serious concerns about IMF projections for Argentina's GDP growth since 1999 and Venezuela's since 2003.
"It's hard to look at the pattern of these large, repeated errors — especially for Argentina — and not wonder what went wrong," said economist Mark Weisbrot, CEPR co-director and co-author of the paper with David Rosnick.
Weisbrot recommended that the IMF address this problem at their Spring Meetings this month. "It raises questions regarding the reliability and objectivity of the IMF's growth projections," he said.
The report, Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections For Argentina and Venezuela, shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002. This was during the country's 1998-2002 depression, when the IMF was lending billions of dollars to support policies that ultimately ended in an economic collapse.
These overestimates then changed to large underestimates for the four years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. During this time, the IMF had an increasingly antagonistic relationship with the Argentine government and opposed a number of its economic policies. In April 2003, the IMF's Director of Research called Argentina's growth "a hiatus at the moment from its long economic fall."
Argentina has now completed a five-year economic expansion with the fastest growth in the Western Hemisphere, with real GDP growth of 47 percent.
The paper looks at the record of IMF public documents and finds evidence that faulty economic analysis and political considerations may have contributed to these errors. Similarly, the authors suggest that the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004 may be related to its apparent dislike for that government.
According to the report, with regard to Venezuela, "IMF projections for the years 2004, 2005, and 2006 underestimated GDP growth by 10.6, 6.8, and 5.8 percentage points respectively."
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Oxfam: "Spread of Free Trade Agreements threatens poor countries"
Oxfam Press Release – 20 March 2007
Rich countries are using regional and bilateral trade deals to attain concessions they cannot get at the World Trade Organization (WTO), with serious implications for poor countries’ development, says a new report published by Oxfam today.
Twenty-five developing countries have now signed free trade deals with developed countries, with more under negotiation, according to the report, Signing Away the Future. In total, there are more than 250 regional or bilateral trade agreements in force, governing 30% of world trade.
“Trade is important for growth but these agreements are bad for development. They require enormous irreversible concessions from developing countries and almost nothing in return from rich countries,” said Celine Charveriat, head of Oxfam’s Make Trade Fair Campaign.
“These deals demand much faster liberalisation and stricter intellectual property rules than the WTO. They strip developing countries of the right to govern their economies and threaten their abilities to protect their poorest people and lift them out of poverty,” she added.
The report highlights a number of ways in which free trade deals can be harmful:
Amy Barry on +44 (0)1865 47231, or +44 (0)798066439, abarry@oxfam.org.uk.
© 2007 Oxfam International all rights reserved. www.oxfam.org
Rich countries are using regional and bilateral trade deals to attain concessions they cannot get at the World Trade Organization (WTO), with serious implications for poor countries’ development, says a new report published by Oxfam today.
Twenty-five developing countries have now signed free trade deals with developed countries, with more under negotiation, according to the report, Signing Away the Future. In total, there are more than 250 regional or bilateral trade agreements in force, governing 30% of world trade.
“Trade is important for growth but these agreements are bad for development. They require enormous irreversible concessions from developing countries and almost nothing in return from rich countries,” said Celine Charveriat, head of Oxfam’s Make Trade Fair Campaign.
“These deals demand much faster liberalisation and stricter intellectual property rules than the WTO. They strip developing countries of the right to govern their economies and threaten their abilities to protect their poorest people and lift them out of poverty,” she added.
The report highlights a number of ways in which free trade deals can be harmful:
- Investment rules in free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties deny governments the right to protect workers, the environment and the economy, and can expose them to compensation claims that reach billions
- Stricter intellectual property provisions threaten to deny poor people access to affordable medicines, undermine traditional farming methods, and remove rights to traditional knowledge
- Harsh tariff liberalisation threatens farmers’ livelihoods and will impede future economic development
- The web of different agreements undermines multilateralism and diverts trade.
The implications for development are significant. In the first ten years after the NAFTA agreement, Mexico lost 1.3 million agricultural jobs. Manufacturing jobs were initially created but competition from cheap labour in China led to 200,000 job losses between 2001-4 as firms relocated. In Peru, up to 900,000 people could be left without access to medicines if the US-Peru trade agreement goes ahead.
Meanwhile, a study commissioned by the EU has predicted that a proposed Economic Partnership Agreement with West Africa will lead to import surges of over 15% on key commodities, such as onions, potatoes, beef and poultry, which will devastate the rural sector.
Charveriat: “Poor countries are being pressured to open their markets dramatically through free trade agreements, but developed countries do not even have to touch their massive agricultural subsidies that lead to overproduction and dumping. It is hugely unjust.”
The report recommends that all trade rules, whether multilateral, regional or bilateral:
- Recognize that developing countries need special and differential treatment
- Allow developing countries to adopt flexible intellectual property legislation
- Exclude essential services, such as health, from liberalization commitments
- Recognize the right of governments to regulate foreign investors
- Ensure participation of civil society and other actors in the negotiating process.
Amy Barry on +44 (0)1865 47231, or +44 (0)798066439, abarry@oxfam.org.uk.
© 2007 Oxfam International all rights reserved. www.oxfam.org
Reuters: "Ecuador's poor majority back referendum"
Ecuador's poor majority backs Correa's referendum
By Alonso SotoREUTERS
8:02 a.m. April 12, 2007
QUITO – In Ecuador's shantytowns, where stray dogs rifle through garbage and mud-caked children in torn clothes play soccer on dirt tracks, supporting the president's constitutional reform plans is a way to hit back at the old elite. Polls predict Ecuadoreans will Sunday overwhelmingly back a proposal by leftist President Rafael Correa to set up an assembly to rewrite the constitution, a move that could curb the powers of a Congress widely seen as self-serving.
“He is going to change things in this country, because he can outsmart all those corrupt politicians,” said truck-driver Manuel Ordonez, 45, in Quito's crime-ridden slum of Pisuli.
“The assembly will bring the change we need,” he said, perched on the roof of his dingy one-room home where his mother was boiling a corn-cob for dinner.
Correa, who took office in January, says the proposed assembly could cut the influence of congressmen in the Andean nation's judiciary and state companies, and force them to live in the poor constituencies they represent.
In Pisuli, which clings to a bleak hillside overlooking a glitzy residential district, many are unsure what the new assembly would do but back it as the brainchild of the dashing, charismatic Correa. “I see hope in him, hope we never had,” said Gloria Sanchez, 57, a tiny mother of five who collects scrap metal for a living. “I really don't know what a new assembly can do, but we need change. I trust Correa,” she added, impervious to a chill, misty drizzle soaking the world's second-highest capital.
Although a Cedatos-Gallup poll found 63 percent of voters in the world's top banana exporter would back the new assembly, 98 percent did not fully understand what powers it would have.
If Ecuadoreans vote “yes” Sunday, there will be an election for assembly members later this year, most likely in September or October.
CHAVEZ ALLY
Correa, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, has ruffled Wall Street with his vows to renegotiate oil deals and the national debt.
But while the opposition warns in television campaigns that Correa is turning into a dictator and centering power around himself like Chavez, poncho-clad Indians have marched through poor mountain hamlets with placards saying “Vote Yes”.
“Correa is the new outsider who battles the establishment and that has made him very attractive for Ecuadoreans,” said Carlos Cordova, a pollster with Cedatos-Gallup.
“People identify with him and he is still enjoying his honeymoon after only three months on the job. His popularity is fueling support for the assembly in Sunday's referendum.” But analysts warn that Correa could run into trouble if old foes such as former President Lucio Gutierrez, who was ousted in 2005 amid street protests and turmoil in Congress, get a strong foothold in the assembly, or if powerful Indian groups feel sidelined.
Ecuadorean politics are extremely volatile and Correa is the eighth president in a decade. Even the decision to hold the referendum sparked a bitter dispute in which lawmakers were fired and fought with the police.
Three presidents have been ousted by congressional and popular unrest in the last 10 years.
Michael Shifter, a Latin America analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank, said playing the populist card might not end Ecuador's hair-trigger volatility as Correa wants.
“I'm not sure the constituent assembly is the solution to Ecuador's fragmentation, particularity for the way Correa antagonizes the political forces,” he said.
“Correa's confrontational style may play well politically but not solve the country's instability.”
VOA: Ecuador Referendum May Bring Sweeping Government Changes"
By Brian Wagner
Miami
13 April 2007
Wagner report (Real) - Download 519k audio clipWagner report (Real) - Download 519k
Listen to Wagner report (Real) audio clip Listen to Wagner report (Real)
Voters in Ecuador are to cast ballots Sunday on whether to create a constituent assembly to write a new constitution for the Andean nation. In Miami, VOA's Brian Wagner reports approval of the referendum is essential to the new government of President Rafael Correa, who has promised sweeping political changes.
Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has been promoting the constitutional referendum as a way to end decades of corruption and government inefficiency.
He hopes the process will restructure the congress and end the dominance of existing political parties, blamed for recent government instability. Correa also wants to strengthen the role of the presidency to renegotiate what he says are unfair deals with international creditors and foreign oil companies.
Sunday, voters will have a chance to decide whether to embark on the president's sweeping reform process, explains Terry McCoy, political science professor at the University of Florida.
"I think he's got pretty big ambitions and plans in mind. He'd like to completely remake the Ecuadorian political system," he said. "I think most people would agree that's a good thing, because it's highly dysfunctional and institutionally weak."
Critics say constant battles between Ecuador's political parties have prevented lawmakers and officials from tackling key problems in recent years, such as poverty and the distribution of oil wealth.
Shelley McConnell, senior associate director of the Americas program at the Carter Center, says rewriting the constitution may help break with the past.
"You have an opportunity for consensus building around a national agenda and a new set of structures," she said. "But it's also a risky moment, because we're talking about the distribution of political power and resources, and those are hard fought things."
Already Mr. Correa has fought several political battles with parties opposed to the referendum. Earlier this year, opposition lawmakers moved to impeach him over the proposed vote, sparking a dispute that led to the firing of 57 opposition legislators.
Polls show the referendum is likely to win approval on Sunday, mainly because of public dissatisfaction with Ecuador's political parties and recent instability - it has had eight presidents in the past 10 years.
Mr. Correa has sought to distance himself from existing parties and portray himself as a relative newcomer to politics. Raul Madrid, associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, says it may be unrealistic to replace the nation's entire political structure.
"There are lots of problems in the country. What we don't know is to what degree these changes will solve those problems, or will they simply impose a new system of corrupt, inefficient elites," he said.
One of Mr. Correa's biggest political allies comes from outside the country: Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Mr. Correa has said he is close friends with the leftist Venezuelan leader, but he does not subscribe to his program of socialist reforms.
Hugo Chavez —>
Miami
13 April 2007
Wagner report (Real) - Download 519k audio clipWagner report (Real) - Download 519k
Listen to Wagner report (Real) audio clip Listen to Wagner report (Real)
Voters in Ecuador are to cast ballots Sunday on whether to create a constituent assembly to write a new constitution for the Andean nation. In Miami, VOA's Brian Wagner reports approval of the referendum is essential to the new government of President Rafael Correa, who has promised sweeping political changes.
<—President Rafael Correa delivers a speech from the balcony of the Government Palace in Quito, 28 Mar 2007
Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has been promoting the constitutional referendum as a way to end decades of corruption and government inefficiency.
He hopes the process will restructure the congress and end the dominance of existing political parties, blamed for recent government instability. Correa also wants to strengthen the role of the presidency to renegotiate what he says are unfair deals with international creditors and foreign oil companies.
Sunday, voters will have a chance to decide whether to embark on the president's sweeping reform process, explains Terry McCoy, political science professor at the University of Florida.
"I think he's got pretty big ambitions and plans in mind. He'd like to completely remake the Ecuadorian political system," he said. "I think most people would agree that's a good thing, because it's highly dysfunctional and institutionally weak."
Critics say constant battles between Ecuador's political parties have prevented lawmakers and officials from tackling key problems in recent years, such as poverty and the distribution of oil wealth.
Shelley McConnell, senior associate director of the Americas program at the Carter Center, says rewriting the constitution may help break with the past.
"You have an opportunity for consensus building around a national agenda and a new set of structures," she said. "But it's also a risky moment, because we're talking about the distribution of political power and resources, and those are hard fought things."
Already Mr. Correa has fought several political battles with parties opposed to the referendum. Earlier this year, opposition lawmakers moved to impeach him over the proposed vote, sparking a dispute that led to the firing of 57 opposition legislators.
Polls show the referendum is likely to win approval on Sunday, mainly because of public dissatisfaction with Ecuador's political parties and recent instability - it has had eight presidents in the past 10 years.
Mr. Correa has sought to distance himself from existing parties and portray himself as a relative newcomer to politics. Raul Madrid, associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, says it may be unrealistic to replace the nation's entire political structure.
"There are lots of problems in the country. What we don't know is to what degree these changes will solve those problems, or will they simply impose a new system of corrupt, inefficient elites," he said.
One of Mr. Correa's biggest political allies comes from outside the country: Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Mr. Correa has said he is close friends with the leftist Venezuelan leader, but he does not subscribe to his program of socialist reforms.
Hugo Chavez —> Since taking office in Venezuela in 1999, Mr. Chavez oversaw the writing of a new constitution for his country and has called for other reforms that are similar to those being considered in Ecuador.
Madrid says that Mr. Chavez has become a model for leftist leaders, including Mr. Correa and Bolivia's President Evo Morales.
"Chavez is viewed by Morales and Correa as being fairly effective in his ability to get done what he wants to get done, and I think they're copying his methods," he said.
Bolivia has elected a constitutional assembly to write a new government charter, and officials in Nicaragua also have proposed the idea. Shelley McConnell of the Carter Center says there is a clear trend in the region.
"I think the demands for change are genuinely domestic to the countries where they are taking place," she said. "There is a broad debate about what democracy should look like."
If Ecuadorian voters approve the referendum on Sunday, a constituent assembly will be selected and installed by October. The assembly then will have at least six months to draft a new government charter, which voters then would have a chance to approve or reject in a new ballot.
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