Peru: "President's popularity soars"

President's approval rating soars to over 60%

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Garcia, known to have the 'gift of gab' boasts of a 61.4% approval rating.

© Andina

(LIP-jl) -- So far so good. Peruvian President Alan Garcia, considered to have been one of the worst leaders in Peruvian history due to the chaos in which he left the country after his first term (1985-1990), appears to have reinvented himself among the Peruvian population.

The latest survey released by the University of Lima's Public Opinion Group indicated that the Peruvian leader boasts of a very healthy 61.4% approval rating.

However not all was perfect for the APRA political party leader as the survey, which was administrated in the Lima-Callao metropolitan area, also revealed a 30% disapproval rating.

The survey also highlighted other key figures in Peru's often eventful political arena.

Lima city mayor Luis Castañeda has maintained his astronomically high approval rating of 89.3%, despite news that a congressional committee will begin an audit on the financial makeup of large projects conducted under the mayor's administration. Allegations have surfaced suggesting projects, such as the Via Expresa Grau, were grossly overcharged to the Peruvian government.

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Peru's most popular politician: Lima Mayor Luis "Lucho" Castañeda enjoys an approval just shy of the 90% mark.

© Andina

Peruvian opposition leader Ollanta Humala received a low approval rating of 15.2%, however that was not interpreted as much of a surprise since Humala's stronghold lies outside of the Peruvian capital.

Other political figures highlighted by the survey: Prime Minister Jorge Del Castillo (44.5% approval/42.6 disapproval), Parliamentary President Mercedes Cabanillas (60.6% approval/30.9% disapproval), former presidential candidate Lourdes Flores (46.6% approval/41.8% disapproval), and former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, who received a whopping 72.5% disapproval rating.

Peru: "Coca farmers renew protests"

Coca farmers renew protests against government, block roads

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Tocache coca farmers are back at it again.

© La Republica

(LIP-jl) -- They are back at it again. Not surprisingly, coca farmers from one of Peru's largest coca growing regions started protests in the wake of the Peruvian government's relaunching of its forced coca plant eradication program.

Showing there discontent with federal government's eradication efforts, coca farmers from Tocache Province (department of San Martin) blocked a 400 meter stretch of the Fernando Belaunde Terry Highway, near the district of Nuevo Progreso, with boulders, logs, and dirt.

"The group of protesters is quite large and their manifestation is seriously impeding traffic from continuing through to their destinations," stated a police officer.

According to law enforcement authorities from the Nuevo Progreso Police Station, the protest began yesterday morning at 8 a.m. and lasted until the afternoon after heavy rain caused much of the protesters to seek cover.

The highway is the main artery which connects the central jungle cities of Tocache with Juanjui, Tarapoto, and Tingo Maria.

Just last month, striking Tocache coca farmers met with government officials to help protect them from forced eradication operations.

After meeting with Peru's Agricultural Minister both parties came to an agreement.

However, just last week Peruvian President Alan Garcia strengthened his position against Peru's war on drugs and called for a dramatic increase in anti-drug operations.

Peru: "President orders 'bombings' of illicit coca"

Peru | 2 April, 2007 [ 18:08 ]

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Peru's Alan Garcia has taken a hard stance against the country's drug trade.

© Andina

(LIP-jl) -- "The Peruvian government will not give up nor budge an inch against threats versus the expansion of illicit coca plant cultivations," declared Peruvian President Alan Garcia at the inauguration of the II Inter-American Forum on Security and Human Coexistence.

Garcia's anti-drug rhetoric was highlighted by his call to "bomb" and "gun down" all narcotics maceration wells and clandestine airports used to produce and transport illegal drugs out of the Peruvian jungle.

"If we don't kill off the danger of expanding narcotics operations immediately, then Peru may very well face insurgency problems as large as what is happening in Colombia," Garcia affirmed.

"Use A37 attack planes, bomb and gun down airports and maceration wells. And at the same time, take out the benefactor, the drug baron," emphasized the Peruvian leader.

He indicated that the Peruvian government cannot budge an inch on their anti-drug measure, otherwise, "the international community will put us on the 'black list' of global drug suppliers."

Garcia added, "I am positive that we can identify which coca farms are cultivated for traditional purposes and which are produced for criminal purposes."

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Peru: Country Forecast

Forecast
Mar 7th 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

The president, Alan Garcia of the centre-left Partido Aprista Peruano (Apra), will continue to enjoy a comfortable level of popular support. Having gained the backing of the country’s business sector, unlike in his ruinous first term as president (1985-90), Mr Garcia will continue to implement the investor-friendly policies of the past decade. Mr Garcia has inherited a strong economy and is fortunate to be in power at a time of record-high mineral prices. The extra revenue provided by strong economic growth will provide scope for him to implement his social policies, but will also raise expectations. With over half of the population living in poverty, Mr Garcia will, within the constraints of maintaining hard-won fiscal stability, attempt to reduce inequalities by boosting public investment in basic infrastructure, such as water connections, sanitation and road construction. Economic growth will be driven by investment related to the Camisea natural-gas project, as well as by growing exports of minerals, textiles and agricultural produce. Vigilant monetary policy and a stable currency will help to keep inflation anchored around the 2% Central Bank target. The current-account surplus will narrow in 2007-08, as softening commodity prices contribute to an erosion of the trade surplus.

Key changes from last update

Political outlook

The Garcia administration suffered its first major setback in February with the resignation of the interior minister, Pilar Mazzetti, after a controversy stemming from the purchase of police vehicles at inflated prices. An Apra congressman, Luis Alva Castro, will replace her in the post.

Economic policy outlook

In February Peru swapped and bought back US$2.3bn of old Brady bonds and a global 2012 paper as part of its debt management strategy.

Economic forecast

After revising up the Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasts for private consumption and fixed investment, we expect GDP growth to reach 6.8% in 2007.

Oxfam: "Spread of Free Trade Agreements threatens poor countries"

Oxfam Press Release – 20 March 2007

Rich countries are using regional and bilateral trade deals to attain concessions they cannot get at the World Trade Organization (WTO), with serious implications for poor countries’ development, says a new report published by Oxfam today.

Twenty-five developing countries have now signed free trade deals with developed countries, with more under negotiation, according to the report, Signing Away the Future. In total, there are more than 250 regional or bilateral trade agreements in force, governing 30% of world trade.

“Trade is important for growth but these agreements are bad for development. They require enormous irreversible concessions from developing countries and almost nothing in return from rich countries,” said Celine Charveriat, head of Oxfam’s Make Trade Fair Campaign.

“These deals demand much faster liberalisation and stricter intellectual property rules than the WTO. They strip developing countries of the right to govern their economies and threaten their abilities to protect their poorest people and lift them out of poverty,” she added.

The report highlights a number of ways in which free trade deals can be harmful:

• Investment rules in free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties deny governments the right to protect workers, the environment and the economy, and can expose them to compensation claims that reach billions


• Stricter intellectual property provisions threaten to deny poor people access to affordable medicines, undermine traditional farming methods, and remove rights to traditional knowledge


• Harsh tariff liberalisation threatens farmers’ livelihoods and will impede future economic development


• The web of different agreements undermines multilateralism and diverts trade.

The implications for development are significant. In the first ten years after the NAFTA agreement, Mexico lost 1.3 million agricultural jobs. Manufacturing jobs were initially created but competition from cheap labour in China led to 200,000 job losses between 2001-4 as firms relocated. In Peru, up to 900,000 people could be left without access to medicines if the US-Peru trade agreement goes ahead.

Meanwhile, a study commissioned by the EU has predicted that a proposed Economic Partnership Agreement with West Africa will lead to import surges of over 15% on key commodities, such as onions, potatoes, beef and poultry, which will devastate the rural sector.

Charveriat: “Poor countries are being pressured to open their markets dramatically through free trade agreements, but developed countries do not even have to touch their massive agricultural subsidies that lead to overproduction and dumping. It is hugely unjust.”

The report recommends that all trade rules, whether multilateral, regional or bilateral:

1. Recognize that developing countries need special and differential treatment


2. Allow developing countries to adopt flexible intellectual property legislation


3. Exclude essential services, such as health, from liberalization commitments
4. Recognize the right of governments to regulate foreign investors


5. Ensure participation of civil society and other actors in the negotiating process.

For more information, please contact:
Amy Barry on +44 (0)1865 47231, or +44 (0)798066439, abarry@oxfam.org.uk.
© 2007 Oxfam International all rights reserved. www.oxfam.org

Reuters: "Ecuador's poor majority back referendum"

Ecuador's poor majority backs Correa's referendum

By Alonso Soto

REUTERS

8:02 a.m. April 12, 2007

QUITO – In Ecuador's shantytowns, where stray dogs rifle through garbage and mud-caked children in torn clothes play soccer on dirt tracks, supporting the president's constitutional reform plans is a way to hit back at the old elite. Polls predict Ecuadoreans will Sunday overwhelmingly back a proposal by leftist President Rafael Correa to set up an assembly to rewrite the constitution, a move that could curb the powers of a Congress widely seen as self-serving.

“He is going to change things in this country, because he can outsmart all those corrupt politicians,” said truck-driver Manuel Ordonez, 45, in Quito's crime-ridden slum of Pisuli.

“The assembly will bring the change we need,” he said, perched on the roof of his dingy one-room home where his mother was boiling a corn-cob for dinner.

Correa, who took office in January, says the proposed assembly could cut the influence of congressmen in the Andean nation's judiciary and state companies, and force them to live in the poor constituencies they represent.

In Pisuli, which clings to a bleak hillside overlooking a glitzy residential district, many are unsure what the new assembly would do but back it as the brainchild of the dashing, charismatic Correa. “I see hope in him, hope we never had,” said Gloria Sanchez, 57, a tiny mother of five who collects scrap metal for a living. “I really don't know what a new assembly can do, but we need change. I trust Correa,” she added, impervious to a chill, misty drizzle soaking the world's second-highest capital.

Although a Cedatos-Gallup poll found 63 percent of voters in the world's top banana exporter would back the new assembly, 98 percent did not fully understand what powers it would have.

If Ecuadoreans vote “yes” Sunday, there will be an election for assembly members later this year, most likely in September or October.

CHAVEZ ALLY

Correa, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, has ruffled Wall Street with his vows to renegotiate oil deals and the national debt.

But while the opposition warns in television campaigns that Correa is turning into a dictator and centering power around himself like Chavez, poncho-clad Indians have marched through poor mountain hamlets with placards saying “Vote Yes”.

“Correa is the new outsider who battles the establishment and that has made him very attractive for Ecuadoreans,” said Carlos Cordova, a pollster with Cedatos-Gallup.

“People identify with him and he is still enjoying his honeymoon after only three months on the job. His popularity is fueling support for the assembly in Sunday's referendum.” But analysts warn that Correa could run into trouble if old foes such as former President Lucio Gutierrez, who was ousted in 2005 amid street protests and turmoil in Congress, get a strong foothold in the assembly, or if powerful Indian groups feel sidelined.

Ecuadorean politics are extremely volatile and Correa is the eighth president in a decade. Even the decision to hold the referendum sparked a bitter dispute in which lawmakers were fired and fought with the police.

Three presidents have been ousted by congressional and popular unrest in the last 10 years.

Michael Shifter, a Latin America analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank, said playing the populist card might not end Ecuador's hair-trigger volatility as Correa wants.

“I'm not sure the constituent assembly is the solution to Ecuador's fragmentation, particularity for the way Correa antagonizes the political forces,” he said.

“Correa's confrontational style may play well politically but not solve the country's instability.”

VOA: Ecuador Referendum May Bring Sweeping Government Changes"

By Brian Wagner
Miami
13 April 2007

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Voters in Ecuador are to cast ballots Sunday on whether to create a constituent assembly to write a new constitution for the Andean nation. In Miami, VOA's Brian Wagner reports approval of the referendum is essential to the new government of President Rafael Correa, who has promised sweeping political changes.

<—President Rafael Correa delivers a speech from the balcony of the Government Palace in Quito, 28 Mar 2007

Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has been promoting the constitutional referendum as a way to end decades of corruption and government inefficiency.

He hopes the process will restructure the congress and end the dominance of existing political parties, blamed for recent government instability. Correa also wants to strengthen the role of the presidency to renegotiate what he says are unfair deals with international creditors and foreign oil companies.

Sunday, voters will have a chance to decide whether to embark on the president's sweeping reform process, explains Terry McCoy, political science professor at the University of Florida.

"I think he's got pretty big ambitions and plans in mind. He'd like to completely remake the Ecuadorian political system," he said. "I think most people would agree that's a good thing, because it's highly dysfunctional and institutionally weak."

Critics say constant battles between Ecuador's political parties have prevented lawmakers and officials from tackling key problems in recent years, such as poverty and the distribution of oil wealth.

Shelley McConnell, senior associate director of the Americas program at the Carter Center, says rewriting the constitution may help break with the past.

"You have an opportunity for consensus building around a national agenda and a new set of structures," she said. "But it's also a risky moment, because we're talking about the distribution of political power and resources, and those are hard fought things."

Already Mr. Correa has fought several political battles with parties opposed to the referendum. Earlier this year, opposition lawmakers moved to impeach him over the proposed vote, sparking a dispute that led to the firing of 57 opposition legislators.

Polls show the referendum is likely to win approval on Sunday, mainly because of public dissatisfaction with Ecuador's political parties and recent instability - it has had eight presidents in the past 10 years.

Mr. Correa has sought to distance himself from existing parties and portray himself as a relative newcomer to politics. Raul Madrid, associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, says it may be unrealistic to replace the nation's entire political structure.

"There are lots of problems in the country. What we don't know is to what degree these changes will solve those problems, or will they simply impose a new system of corrupt, inefficient elites," he said.

One of Mr. Correa's biggest political allies comes from outside the country: Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Mr. Correa has said he is close friends with the leftist Venezuelan leader, but he does not subscribe to his program of socialist reforms.

Hugo Chavez —>

Since taking office in Venezuela in 1999, Mr. Chavez oversaw the writing of a new constitution for his country and has called for other reforms that are similar to those being considered in Ecuador.

Madrid says that Mr. Chavez has become a model for leftist leaders, including Mr. Correa and Bolivia's President Evo Morales.

"Chavez is viewed by Morales and Correa as being fairly effective in his ability to get done what he wants to get done, and I think they're copying his methods," he said.

Bolivia has elected a constitutional assembly to write a new government charter, and officials in Nicaragua also have proposed the idea. Shelley McConnell of the Carter Center says there is a clear trend in the region.

"I think the demands for change are genuinely domestic to the countries where they are taking place," she said. "There is a broad debate about what democracy should look like."

If Ecuadorian voters approve the referendum on Sunday, a constituent assembly will be selected and installed by October. The assembly then will have at least six months to draft a new government charter, which voters then would have a chance to approve or reject in a new ballot.